Paris Saint-Germain FC
Home
Sat, 30 May 2026 16:00 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 5-4
Arsenal FC
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
47.8%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 2.00-1.53; Elo differential is 28. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 62%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 16.0pp; entropy 0.95. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 3 vs 1.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC
Team form
| Paris Saint-Germain FC | Arsenal FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 2.25 | 1.62 |
| Avg goals against | 1.04 | 0.66 |
| BTTS rate | 52% | 46% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 3 | 1 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Paris Saint-Germain FC win
47.8%
Draw
20.4%
Arsenal FC win
31.8%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67.3%
No
32.7%
Double Chance
1X (Paris Saint-Germain FC or draw)
68.2%
X2 (draw or Arsenal FC)
52.2%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
96.9%
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Under 4.5
71.7%
Clean Sheet
Paris Saint-Germain FC clean sheet
21.9%
Arsenal FC clean sheet
13.9%
Draw No Bet
Paris Saint-Germain FC win
60.1%
Arsenal FC win
39.9%