Botafogo FR
Home
Thu, 16 Jul 2026 22:30 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 2-1
Santos FC
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
✓ Exact score matched
Confidence
51.4%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.98-1.18; Elo differential is 112. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 24.5pp; entropy 0.94. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 12 vs 15.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC
Team form
| Botafogo FR | Santos FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.79 | 1.53 |
| Avg goals against | 1.69 | 1.49 |
| BTTS rate | 83% | 66% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 12 | 15 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Botafogo FR win
51.4%
Draw
26.8%
Santos FC win
21.8%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Double Chance
1X (Botafogo FR or draw)
78.2%
X2 (draw or Santos FC)
48.6%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
94.9%
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Under 4.5
80.7%
Clean Sheet
Botafogo FR clean sheet
30.5%
Santos FC clean sheet
14.0%
Draw No Bet
Botafogo FR win
70.2%
Santos FC win
29.8%