Santos FC
Home
Sat, 25 Jul 2026 21:30 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 2-2
Chapecoense AF
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
59.7%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 2.26-1.02; Elo differential is 144. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 32.0pp; entropy 0.84. Selective pick: STRONG. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 14 vs 20.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC
Team form
| Santos FC | Chapecoense AF | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.47 | 0.71 |
| Avg goals against | 1.54 | 2.18 |
| BTTS rate | 69% | 51% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 14 | 20 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Santos FC win
59.7%
Draw
27.6%
Chapecoense AF win
12.7%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Double Chance
1X (Santos FC or draw)
87.3%
X2 (draw or Chapecoense AF)
40.3%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
95.3%
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Over 2.5
62.8%
Under 2.5
37.2%
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Under 4.5
79.4%
Clean Sheet
Santos FC clean sheet
35.6%
Chapecoense AF clean sheet
10.6%
Draw No Bet
Santos FC win
82.5%
Chapecoense AF win
17.5%