Grêmio FBPA
Home
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 21:30 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 3-1
Chapecoense AF
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
54.3%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.96-0.96; Elo differential is 115. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 28.1pp; entropy 0.91. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 16 vs 20.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| Grêmio FBPA | Chapecoense AF | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| Avg goals against | 1.41 | 2.02 |
| BTTS rate | 55% | 58% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 16 | 20 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Grêmio FBPA win
54.3%
Draw
26.1%
Chapecoense AF win
19.6%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Double Chance
1X (Grêmio FBPA or draw)
80.4%
X2 (draw or Chapecoense AF)
45.7%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
93.4%
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Under 4.5
84.8%
Clean Sheet
Grêmio FBPA clean sheet
38.5%
Chapecoense AF clean sheet
14.9%
Draw No Bet
Grêmio FBPA win
73.5%
Chapecoense AF win
26.5%