SC Heerenveen
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Sun, 06 Sep 2026 12:30 (UTC+0)
1-2
Final score: 2-3
AZ
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
42.7%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.38-1.49; Elo differential is 9. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 10.7pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 9 vs 1.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 22:46 UTC
Team form
| SC Heerenveen | AZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.41 | 1.97 |
| Avg goals against | 1.40 | 1.05 |
| BTTS rate | 46% | 49% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 9 | 1 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
SC Heerenveen win
31.9%
Draw
25.4%
AZ win
42.7%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Double Chance
1X (SC Heerenveen or draw)
57.3%
X2 (draw or AZ)
68.1%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
93.3%
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Under 4.5
85.5%
Clean Sheet
SC Heerenveen clean sheet
22.1%
AZ clean sheet
26.0%
Draw No Bet
SC Heerenveen win
42.8%
AZ win
57.2%