Genoa CFC
Home
Sat, 10 Oct 2026 13:00 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 2-1
ACF Fiorentina
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
✓ Exact score matched
Confidence
37.3%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.39-1.33; Elo differential is -8. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 61%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 2.2pp; entropy 0.99. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 19 vs 17.
Predicted at 26 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| Genoa CFC | ACF Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 0.81 | 1.18 |
| Avg goals against | 1.57 | 1.65 |
| BTTS rate | 52% | 55% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 19 | 17 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Genoa CFC win
37.3%
Draw
27.6%
ACF Fiorentina win
35.1%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Double Chance
1X (Genoa CFC or draw)
64.9%
X2 (draw or ACF Fiorentina)
62.7%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
92.4%
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Over 2.5
51.1%
Under 2.5
48.9%
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Under 4.5
86.0%
Clean Sheet
Genoa CFC clean sheet
26.5%
ACF Fiorentina clean sheet
24.9%
Draw No Bet
Genoa CFC win
51.5%
ACF Fiorentina win
48.5%