US Lecce
Home
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 13:00 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 3-2
AC Monza
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
44.9%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.33-0.90; Elo differential is 181. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 100%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 14.0pp; entropy 0.97. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 4 vs 18.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| US Lecce | AC Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Avg goals against | 1.08 | 3.55 |
| BTTS rate | 33% | 87% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 4 | 18 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
US Lecce win
44.9%
Draw
30.9%
AC Monza win
24.2%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45.0%
No
55.0%
Double Chance
1X (US Lecce or draw)
75.8%
X2 (draw or AC Monza)
55.1%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
90.5%
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Over 2.5
39.3%
Under 2.5
60.7%
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Under 4.5
92.5%
Clean Sheet
US Lecce clean sheet
39.6%
AC Monza clean sheet
24.8%
Draw No Bet
US Lecce win
65.0%
AC Monza win
35.0%