AS Roma
Home
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 18:45 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 2-1
Atalanta BC
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
55.4%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.43-1.00; Elo differential is 122. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 84%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 32.7pp; entropy 0.91. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 2 vs 6.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| AS Roma | Atalanta BC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 2.19 | 1.42 |
| Avg goals against | 0.81 | 1.26 |
| BTTS rate | 34% | 59% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 2 | 6 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
AS Roma win
55.4%
Draw
21.8%
Atalanta BC win
22.8%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Double Chance
1X (AS Roma or draw)
77.2%
X2 (draw or Atalanta BC)
44.6%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
92.0%
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Under 4.5
90.4%
Clean Sheet
AS Roma clean sheet
37.6%
Atalanta BC clean sheet
22.9%
Draw No Bet
AS Roma win
70.9%
Atalanta BC win
29.1%