US Lecce
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Mon, 31 Aug 2026 16:30 (UTC+0)
0-1
AS Roma
Away
Confidence
57.6%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 0.64-1.68; Elo differential is -138. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 100%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 30.8pp; entropy 0.87. Selective pick: STRONG. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 4 vs 2.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| US Lecce | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 0.98 | 2.19 |
| Avg goals against | 1.08 | 0.81 |
| BTTS rate | 33% | 34% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 4 | 2 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
US Lecce win
15.6%
Draw
26.8%
AS Roma win
57.6%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37.4%
No
62.6%
Double Chance
1X (US Lecce or draw)
42.4%
X2 (draw or AS Roma)
84.4%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
90.2%
Over 1.5
66.4%
Under 1.5
33.6%
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Under 4.5
92.0%
Clean Sheet
US Lecce clean sheet
18.7%
AS Roma clean sheet
53.7%
Draw No Bet
US Lecce win
21.3%
AS Roma win
78.7%