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Serie A FINISHED
SS Lazio Home
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 18:45 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 1-0
Genoa CFC Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct ✓ Exact score matched

Confidence

44.8%
Low confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.26-0.88; Elo differential is 163. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 100%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 15.5pp; entropy 0.97. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 7 vs 17.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

SS LazioGenoa CFC
Avg goals for1.100.91
Avg goals against1.091.32
BTTS rate34%39%
Games sampled
Position717

Full market breakdown

1X2

SS Lazio win
44.8%
Draw
29.3%
Genoa CFC win
25.9%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%

Double Chance

1X (SS Lazio or draw)
74.1%
X2 (draw or Genoa CFC)
55.2%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
88.4%
Over 1.5
63.1%
Under 1.5
36.9%
Over 2.5
36.2%
Under 2.5
63.8%
Over 3.5
16.1%
Under 3.5
83.9%
Under 4.5
93.8%

Clean Sheet

SS Lazio clean sheet
41.7%
Genoa CFC clean sheet
28.2%

Draw No Bet

SS Lazio win
63.4%
Genoa CFC win
36.6%