SC Heerenveen
Home
Fri, 16 Oct 2026 18:00 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 4-0
SBV Excelsior
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
39.4%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.53-1.51; Elo differential is 86. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 3.8pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 10 vs 7.
Predicted at 02 Oct 2026, 06:03 UTC
Team form
| SC Heerenveen | SBV Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.61 | 1.91 |
| Avg goals against | 1.31 | 1.41 |
| BTTS rate | 45% | 73% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 10 | 7 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
SC Heerenveen win
39.4%
Draw
25.1%
SBV Excelsior win
35.5%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Double Chance
1X (SC Heerenveen or draw)
64.5%
X2 (draw or SBV Excelsior)
60.6%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
94.3%
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Under 4.5
80.9%
Clean Sheet
SC Heerenveen clean sheet
22.1%
SBV Excelsior clean sheet
21.7%
Draw No Bet
SC Heerenveen win
52.5%
SBV Excelsior win
47.5%