AFC Ajax
Home
Sat, 10 Oct 2026 19:00 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 1-1
NEC
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
52.0%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 2.14-1.49; Elo differential is 102. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 25.8pp; entropy 0.93. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 5 vs 11.
Predicted at 26 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| AFC Ajax | NEC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 2.52 | 1.77 |
| Avg goals against | 1.24 | 1.67 |
| BTTS rate | 70% | 86% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 5 | 11 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
AFC Ajax win
52.0%
Draw
21.7%
NEC win
26.2%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
69.0%
No
31.0%
Double Chance
1X (AFC Ajax or draw)
73.8%
X2 (draw or NEC)
48.0%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
88.4%
Under 1.5
11.6%
Over 2.5
70.2%
Under 2.5
29.8%
Over 3.5
49.0%
Under 3.5
51.0%
Under 4.5
70.2%
Clean Sheet
AFC Ajax clean sheet
22.6%
NEC clean sheet
11.8%
Draw No Bet
AFC Ajax win
66.5%
NEC win
33.5%