AFC Ajax
Home
Sat, 19 Sep 2026 18:00 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 2-2
SBV Excelsior
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
48.9%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.91-1.40; Elo differential is 158. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 21.3pp; entropy 0.95. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 4 vs 8.
Predicted at 05 Sep 2026, 02:02 UTC
Team form
| AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 2.03 | 1.84 |
| Avg goals against | 0.98 | 1.35 |
| BTTS rate | 53% | 70% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 4 | 8 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
AFC Ajax win
48.9%
Draw
23.4%
SBV Excelsior win
27.6%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64.6%
No
35.4%
Double Chance
1X (AFC Ajax or draw)
72.4%
X2 (draw or SBV Excelsior)
51.1%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
95.7%
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Over 2.5
64.1%
Under 2.5
35.9%
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Under 4.5
76.2%
Clean Sheet
AFC Ajax clean sheet
24.8%
SBV Excelsior clean sheet
14.9%
Draw No Bet
AFC Ajax win
63.9%
SBV Excelsior win
36.1%