SBV Excelsior
Home
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 10:15 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 1-2
FC Utrecht
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
38.3%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.52-1.41; Elo differential is -8. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 6.8pp; entropy 0.99. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 10 vs 15.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 22:47 UTC
Team form
| SBV Excelsior | FC Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.81 | 1.67 |
| Avg goals against | 1.40 | 1.83 |
| BTTS rate | 66% | 68% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 10 | 15 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
SBV Excelsior win
38.3%
Draw
30.1%
FC Utrecht win
31.5%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Double Chance
1X (SBV Excelsior or draw)
68.5%
X2 (draw or FC Utrecht)
61.7%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
93.7%
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Under 4.5
84.3%
Clean Sheet
SBV Excelsior clean sheet
24.1%
FC Utrecht clean sheet
22.0%
Draw No Bet
SBV Excelsior win
54.9%
FC Utrecht win
45.1%