Lille OSC
Home
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 13:00 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 2-0
ES Troyes AC
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
63.0%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.15-0.60; Elo differential is 174. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 92%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 42.2pp; entropy 0.83. Selective pick: STRONG. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 1 vs 11.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| Lille OSC | ES Troyes AC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.47 | 0.00 |
| Avg goals against | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| BTTS rate | 38% | 0% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 1 | 11 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Lille OSC win
63.0%
Draw
20.9%
ES Troyes AC win
16.1%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31.8%
No
68.2%
Double Chance
1X (Lille OSC or draw)
83.9%
X2 (draw or ES Troyes AC)
37.0%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
83.7%
Over 1.5
55.3%
Under 1.5
44.7%
Over 2.5
27.6%
Under 2.5
72.4%
Over 3.5
11.1%
Under 3.5
88.9%
Under 4.5
96.2%
Clean Sheet
Lille OSC clean sheet
54.6%
ES Troyes AC clean sheet
29.9%
Draw No Bet
Lille OSC win
79.6%
ES Troyes AC win
20.4%