Toulouse FC
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Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:45 (UTC+0)
0-1
Lille OSC
Away
Confidence
36.7%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.07-1.32; Elo differential is -66. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 92%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 2.9pp; entropy 1.00. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 16 vs 1.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| Toulouse FC | Lille OSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.20 | 1.47 |
| Avg goals against | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| BTTS rate | 48% | 38% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 16 | 1 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Toulouse FC win
33.8%
Draw
29.5%
Lille OSC win
36.7%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Double Chance
1X (Toulouse FC or draw)
63.3%
X2 (draw or Lille OSC)
66.2%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
90.2%
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Over 2.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
58.6%
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Under 4.5
91.6%
Clean Sheet
Toulouse FC clean sheet
27.8%
Lille OSC clean sheet
33.7%
Draw No Bet
Toulouse FC win
48.0%
Lille OSC win
52.0%