Paris Saint-Germain FC
Home
Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:05 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 1-2
AS Monaco FC
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
64.3%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 2.47-1.16; Elo differential is 225. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 57%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 46.1pp; entropy 0.82. Selective pick: STRONG. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 6 vs 5.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| Paris Saint-Germain FC | AS Monaco FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 2.35 | 1.64 |
| Avg goals against | 1.38 | 1.54 |
| BTTS rate | 63% | 58% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 6 | 5 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Paris Saint-Germain FC win
64.3%
Draw
18.2%
AS Monaco FC win
17.4%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Double Chance
1X (Paris Saint-Germain FC or draw)
82.6%
X2 (draw or AS Monaco FC)
35.7%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
97.2%
Over 1.5
88.7%
Under 1.5
11.3%
Over 2.5
71.2%
Under 2.5
28.8%
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Under 4.5
68.7%
Clean Sheet
Paris Saint-Germain FC clean sheet
32.4%
AS Monaco FC clean sheet
7.7%
Draw No Bet
Paris Saint-Germain FC win
78.7%
AS Monaco FC win
21.3%