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Ligue 1 TIMED
Olympique Lyonnais Home
Fri, 04 Sep 2026 17:00 (UTC+0)
1-0
AJ Auxerre Away

Confidence

54.7%
Medium confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.82-0.97; Elo differential is 173. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 94%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 29.3pp; entropy 0.91. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 4 vs 17.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

Olympique LyonnaisAJ Auxerre
Avg goals for1.651.39
Avg goals against1.211.72
BTTS rate49%55%
Games sampled
Position417

Full market breakdown

1X2

Olympique Lyonnais win
54.7%
Draw
25.4%
AJ Auxerre win
19.8%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%

Double Chance

1X (Olympique Lyonnais or draw)
80.2%
X2 (draw or AJ Auxerre)
45.3%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
93.1%
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Under 4.5
86.5%

Clean Sheet

Olympique Lyonnais clean sheet
38.5%
AJ Auxerre clean sheet
15.9%

Draw No Bet

Olympique Lyonnais win
73.4%
AJ Auxerre win
26.6%