AS Monaco FC
Home
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 18:45 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 2-0
Olympique de Marseille
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
42.7%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.81-1.72; Elo differential is 60. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 83%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 8.5pp; entropy 0.97. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 5 vs 2.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| AS Monaco FC | Olympique de Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.64 | 1.77 |
| Avg goals against | 1.54 | 1.33 |
| BTTS rate | 58% | 44% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 5 | 2 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
AS Monaco FC win
42.7%
Draw
23.0%
Olympique de Marseille win
34.2%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68.3%
No
31.7%
Double Chance
1X (AS Monaco FC or draw)
65.8%
X2 (draw or Olympique de Marseille)
57.3%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Over 2.5
66.9%
Under 2.5
33.1%
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Under 4.5
74.9%
Clean Sheet
AS Monaco FC clean sheet
18.9%
Olympique de Marseille clean sheet
16.7%
Draw No Bet
AS Monaco FC win
55.5%
Olympique de Marseille win
44.5%