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Ligue 1 FINISHED
AS Monaco FC Home
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 18:45 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 2-0
Olympique de Marseille Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct Exact score missed

Confidence

42.7%
Low confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.81-1.72; Elo differential is 60. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 83%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 8.5pp; entropy 0.97. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 5 vs 2.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

AS Monaco FCOlympique de Marseille
Avg goals for1.641.77
Avg goals against1.541.33
BTTS rate58%44%
Games sampled
Position52

Full market breakdown

1X2

AS Monaco FC win
42.7%
Draw
23.0%
Olympique de Marseille win
34.2%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
68.3%
No
31.7%

Double Chance

1X (AS Monaco FC or draw)
65.8%
X2 (draw or Olympique de Marseille)
57.3%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Over 2.5
66.9%
Under 2.5
33.1%
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Under 4.5
74.9%

Clean Sheet

AS Monaco FC clean sheet
18.9%
Olympique de Marseille clean sheet
16.7%

Draw No Bet

AS Monaco FC win
55.5%
Olympique de Marseille win
44.5%