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Ligue 1 FINISHED
Paris FC Home
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 13:00 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 3-0
OGC Nice Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct Exact score missed

Confidence

49.7%
Low confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.62-0.95; Elo differential is 121. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 93%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 24.4pp; entropy 0.95. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 10 vs 13.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

Paris FCOGC Nice
Avg goals for1.290.79
Avg goals against1.031.40
BTTS rate52%48%
Games sampled
Position1013

Full market breakdown

1X2

Paris FC win
49.7%
Draw
25.2%
OGC Nice win
25.1%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%

Double Chance

1X (Paris FC or draw)
74.9%
X2 (draw or OGC Nice)
50.3%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
91.1%
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Under 4.5
88.9%

Clean Sheet

Paris FC clean sheet
38.1%
OGC Nice clean sheet
20.0%

Draw No Bet

Paris FC win
66.4%
OGC Nice win
33.6%