← Back to predictions
Ligue 1 FINISHED
Toulouse FC Home
Sat, 22 Aug 2026 18:45 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 0-2
Olympique Lyonnais Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed Exact score missed

Confidence

38.3%
Low confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.26-1.48; Elo differential is -16. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 93%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 0.5pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC

Team form

Toulouse FCOlympique Lyonnais
Avg goals for1.411.59
Avg goals against1.531.40
BTTS rate57%57%
Games sampled

Full market breakdown

1X2

Toulouse FC win
38.3%
Draw
23.8%
Olympique Lyonnais win
37.9%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%

Double Chance

1X (Toulouse FC or draw)
62.1%
X2 (draw or Olympique Lyonnais)
61.7%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
93.3%
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Under 4.5
87.5%

Clean Sheet

Toulouse FC clean sheet
22.2%
Olympique Lyonnais clean sheet
29.6%

Draw No Bet

Toulouse FC win
50.3%
Olympique Lyonnais win
49.7%