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Premier League FINISHED
Crystal Palace FC Home
Fri, 28 Aug 2026 19:00 (UTC+0)
0-1
Final score: 1-4
Manchester City FC Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct Exact score missed

Confidence

52.7%
Medium confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 0.91-1.96; Elo differential is -124. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 88%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 25.6pp; entropy 0.92. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 16 vs 8.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC

Team form

Crystal Palace FCManchester City FC
Avg goals for0.881.81
Avg goals against1.691.02
BTTS rate50%59%
Games sampled
Position168

Full market breakdown

1X2

Crystal Palace FC win
20.2%
Draw
27.1%
Manchester City FC win
52.7%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%

Double Chance

1X (Crystal Palace FC or draw)
47.3%
X2 (draw or Manchester City FC)
79.8%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
93.4%
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Over 3.5
34.5%
Under 3.5
65.5%
Under 4.5
81.9%

Clean Sheet

Crystal Palace FC clean sheet
13.9%
Manchester City FC clean sheet
38.3%

Draw No Bet

Crystal Palace FC win
27.7%
Manchester City FC win
72.3%