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Premier League FINISHED
Chelsea FC Home
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 13:00 (UTC+0)
1-2
Final score: 4-3
Brighton & Hove Albion FC Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed Exact score missed

Confidence

37.3%
Low confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.48-1.37; Elo differential is 44. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 87%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 1.0pp; entropy 0.99. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 7 vs 2.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

Chelsea FCBrighton & Hove Albion FC
Avg goals for1.471.68
Avg goals against1.850.98
BTTS rate69%34%
Games sampled
Position72

Full market breakdown

1X2

Chelsea FC win
36.3%
Draw
26.5%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC win
37.3%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%

Double Chance

1X (Chelsea FC or draw)
62.7%
X2 (draw or Brighton & Hove Albion FC)
63.7%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
93.5%
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Over 2.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Under 4.5
84.8%

Clean Sheet

Chelsea FC clean sheet
24.9%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC clean sheet
22.8%

Draw No Bet

Chelsea FC win
49.3%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC win
50.7%