Newcastle United FC
Home
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:30 (UTC+0)
2-1
AFC Bournemouth
Away
Confidence
39.0%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.56-1.41; Elo differential is 17. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 84%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 3.6pp; entropy 0.99. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 10 vs 13.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| Newcastle United FC | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.65 | 1.40 |
| Avg goals against | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| BTTS rate | 75% | 72% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 10 | 13 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Newcastle United FC win
39.0%
Draw
25.5%
AFC Bournemouth win
35.4%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Double Chance
1X (Newcastle United FC or draw)
64.6%
X2 (draw or AFC Bournemouth)
61.0%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
94.0%
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Over 2.5
56.4%
Under 2.5
43.6%
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Under 4.5
83.9%
Clean Sheet
Newcastle United FC clean sheet
23.6%
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet
20.7%
Draw No Bet
Newcastle United FC win
52.4%
AFC Bournemouth win
47.6%