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Premier League FINISHED
Manchester United FC Home
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 15:30 (UTC+0)
1-2
Final score: 0-1
Manchester City FC Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct Exact score missed

Confidence

39.8%
Low confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.32-1.69; Elo differential is -16. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 89%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 3.8pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 16 vs 1.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

Manchester United FCManchester City FC
Avg goals for1.642.06
Avg goals against1.261.03
BTTS rate59%65%
Games sampled——
Position161

Full market breakdown

1X2

Manchester United FC win
36.0%
Draw
24.2%
Manchester City FC win
39.8%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%

Double Chance

1X (Manchester United FC or draw)
60.2%
X2 (draw or Manchester City FC)
64.0%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
94.2%
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Over 2.5
57.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Over 3.5
34.5%
Under 3.5
65.5%
Under 4.5
81.7%

Clean Sheet

Manchester United FC clean sheet
18.2%
Manchester City FC clean sheet
26.9%

Draw No Bet

Manchester United FC win
47.5%
Manchester City FC win
52.5%