Arsenal FC
Home
Sat, 10 Oct 2026 11:30 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 2-1
Leeds United FC
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
60.0%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.82-0.91; Elo differential is 224. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 40%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 37.4pp; entropy 0.86. Selective pick: STRONG. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 2 vs 5.
Predicted at 26 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| Arsenal FC | Leeds United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.60 | 1.38 |
| Avg goals against | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| BTTS rate | 33% | 57% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 2 | 5 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Arsenal FC win
60.0%
Draw
22.6%
Leeds United FC win
17.4%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Double Chance
1X (Arsenal FC or draw)
82.6%
X2 (draw or Leeds United FC)
40.0%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
92.6%
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Under 4.5
85.8%
Clean Sheet
Arsenal FC clean sheet
40.4%
Leeds United FC clean sheet
16.1%
Draw No Bet
Arsenal FC win
77.6%
Leeds United FC win
22.4%