Chelsea FC
Home
Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 5-1
AFC Bournemouth
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
42.4%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.73-1.48; Elo differential is 24. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 54%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 9.9pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 10 vs 17.
Predicted at 26 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| Chelsea FC | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| Avg goals against | 2.13 | 1.32 |
| BTTS rate | 71% | 72% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 10 | 17 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Chelsea FC win
42.4%
Draw
25.0%
AFC Bournemouth win
32.6%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Double Chance
1X (Chelsea FC or draw)
67.4%
X2 (draw or AFC Bournemouth)
57.6%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
95.1%
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Under 4.5
77.9%
Clean Sheet
Chelsea FC clean sheet
22.7%
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet
17.7%
Draw No Bet
Chelsea FC win
56.6%
AFC Bournemouth win
43.4%