Aston Villa FC
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Sat, 24 Oct 2026 11:30 (UTC+0)
1-2
Final score: 2-1
Manchester City FC
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
50.6%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.26-1.86; Elo differential is -79. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 48%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 24.7pp; entropy 0.94. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 15 vs 1.
Predicted at 11 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC
Team form
| Aston Villa FC | Manchester City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.46 | 2.13 |
| Avg goals against | 1.72 | 0.97 |
| BTTS rate | 65% | 52% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 15 | 1 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Aston Villa FC win
25.9%
Draw
23.5%
Manchester City FC win
50.6%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Double Chance
1X (Aston Villa FC or draw)
49.4%
X2 (draw or Manchester City FC)
74.1%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
94.9%
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Under 4.5
79.5%
Clean Sheet
Aston Villa FC clean sheet
15.6%
Manchester City FC clean sheet
28.4%
Draw No Bet
Aston Villa FC win
33.8%
Manchester City FC win
66.2%