Stoke City FC
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Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:30 (UTC+0)
0-1
Charlton Athletic FC
Away
Confidence
36.8%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.11-1.04; Elo differential is -18. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 4.9pp; entropy 1.00. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 23 vs 3.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| Stoke City FC | Charlton Athletic FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 0.94 | 1.20 |
| Avg goals against | 1.85 | 1.23 |
| BTTS rate | 62% | 74% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 23 | 3 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Stoke City FC win
32.0%
Draw
31.2%
Charlton Athletic FC win
36.8%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Double Chance
1X (Stoke City FC or draw)
63.2%
X2 (draw or Charlton Athletic FC)
68.0%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
86.8%
Over 1.5
65.0%
Under 1.5
35.0%
Over 2.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
62.9%
Over 3.5
17.3%
Under 3.5
82.7%
Under 4.5
93.9%
Clean Sheet
Stoke City FC clean sheet
33.9%
Charlton Athletic FC clean sheet
34.0%
Draw No Bet
Stoke City FC win
46.5%
Charlton Athletic FC win
53.5%