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Championship TIMED
Stoke City FC Home
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 11:30 (UTC+0)
0-1
Charlton Athletic FC Away

Confidence

36.8%
Low confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.11-1.04; Elo differential is -18. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 4.9pp; entropy 1.00. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 23 vs 3.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

Stoke City FCCharlton Athletic FC
Avg goals for0.941.20
Avg goals against1.851.23
BTTS rate62%74%
Games sampled
Position233

Full market breakdown

1X2

Stoke City FC win
32.0%
Draw
31.2%
Charlton Athletic FC win
36.8%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%

Double Chance

1X (Stoke City FC or draw)
63.2%
X2 (draw or Charlton Athletic FC)
68.0%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
86.8%
Over 1.5
65.0%
Under 1.5
35.0%
Over 2.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
62.9%
Over 3.5
17.3%
Under 3.5
82.7%
Under 4.5
93.9%

Clean Sheet

Stoke City FC clean sheet
33.9%
Charlton Athletic FC clean sheet
34.0%

Draw No Bet

Stoke City FC win
46.5%
Charlton Athletic FC win
53.5%