Derby County FC
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Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 (UTC+0)
0-1
Final score: 1-1
Wrexham AFC
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
36.7%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.29-1.31; Elo differential is -19. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 1.5pp; entropy 0.99. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 22 vs 14.
Predicted at 26 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| Derby County FC | Wrexham AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.12 | 1.29 |
| Avg goals against | 1.54 | 1.57 |
| BTTS rate | 53% | 62% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 22 | 14 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Derby County FC win
35.2%
Draw
28.0%
Wrexham AFC win
36.7%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Double Chance
1X (Derby County FC or draw)
63.3%
X2 (draw or Wrexham AFC)
64.8%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
91.6%
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Under 4.5
87.7%
Clean Sheet
Derby County FC clean sheet
26.9%
Wrexham AFC clean sheet
27.5%
Draw No Bet
Derby County FC win
48.9%
Wrexham AFC win
51.1%