Derby County FC
Home
Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:00 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 0-1
Stoke City FC
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
43.2%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.45-1.18; Elo differential is 68. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 13.5pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 22 vs 8.
Predicted at 03 Oct 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| Derby County FC | Stoke City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.12 | 1.40 |
| Avg goals against | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| BTTS rate | 53% | 66% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 22 | 8 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Derby County FC win
43.2%
Draw
27.0%
Stoke City FC win
29.8%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Double Chance
1X (Derby County FC or draw)
70.2%
X2 (draw or Stoke City FC)
56.8%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
91.8%
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Over 2.5
48.9%
Under 2.5
51.1%
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Under 4.5
87.3%
Clean Sheet
Derby County FC clean sheet
30.8%
Stoke City FC clean sheet
23.4%
Draw No Bet
Derby County FC win
59.2%
Stoke City FC win
40.8%