Deportivo Alavés
Home
Fri, 28 Aug 2026 19:30 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 1-0
Villarreal CF
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
✓ Exact score matched
Confidence
39.4%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.42-1.54; Elo differential is -27. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 95%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 7.2pp; entropy 0.99. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 5 vs 11.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC
Team form
| Deportivo Alavés | Villarreal CF | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.51 | 1.89 |
| Avg goals against | 1.42 | 1.60 |
| BTTS rate | 67% | 81% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 5 | 11 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Deportivo Alavés win
39.4%
Draw
28.4%
Villarreal CF win
32.2%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Double Chance
1X (Deportivo Alavés or draw)
67.8%
X2 (draw or Villarreal CF)
60.6%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
95.1%
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Over 2.5
53.9%
Under 2.5
46.1%
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Under 4.5
84.7%
Clean Sheet
Deportivo Alavés clean sheet
23.2%
Villarreal CF clean sheet
23.6%
Draw No Bet
Deportivo Alavés win
55.0%
Villarreal CF win
45.0%