Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Home
Sat, 10 Oct 2026 12:00 (UTC+0)
2-1
Athletic Club
Away
Confidence
51.6%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.77-1.13; Elo differential is 89. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 58%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 27.2pp; entropy 0.94. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 12 vs 10.
Predicted at 26 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.47 | 1.24 |
| Avg goals against | 1.75 | 1.37 |
| BTTS rate | 79% | 49% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 12 | 10 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win
51.6%
Draw
24.4%
Athletic Club win
24.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Double Chance
1X (Rayo Vallecano de Madrid or draw)
76.0%
X2 (draw or Athletic Club)
48.4%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
93.6%
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Under 4.5
83.2%
Clean Sheet
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid clean sheet
32.4%
Athletic Club clean sheet
17.0%
Draw No Bet
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win
68.2%
Athletic Club win
31.8%