Real Madrid CF
Home
Sat, 10 Oct 2026 19:00 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 1-0
Villarreal CF
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
63.8%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 2.32-1.15; Elo differential is 220. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 45%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 44.7pp; entropy 0.82. Selective pick: STRONG. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 4 vs 9.
Predicted at 26 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| Real Madrid CF | Villarreal CF | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 2.22 | 1.87 |
| Avg goals against | 1.16 | 1.70 |
| BTTS rate | 70% | 83% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 4 | 9 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Real Madrid CF win
63.8%
Draw
19.1%
Villarreal CF win
17.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62.4%
No
37.6%
Double Chance
1X (Real Madrid CF or draw)
83.0%
X2 (draw or Villarreal CF)
36.2%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
96.2%
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Over 2.5
67.4%
Under 2.5
32.6%
Over 3.5
45.7%
Under 3.5
54.3%
Under 4.5
73.1%
Clean Sheet
Real Madrid CF clean sheet
31.5%
Villarreal CF clean sheet
9.9%
Draw No Bet
Real Madrid CF win
78.9%
Villarreal CF win
21.1%