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Bundesliga FINISHED
SC Freiburg Home
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 13:30 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 4-1
SV Werder Bremen Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct Exact score missed

Confidence

49.1%
Low confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.71-1.11; Elo differential is 144. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 90%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 23.4pp; entropy 0.95. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

SC FreiburgSV Werder Bremen
Avg goals for1.520.97
Avg goals against1.701.67
BTTS rate63%50%
Games sampled

Full market breakdown

1X2

SC Freiburg win
49.1%
Draw
25.2%
SV Werder Bremen win
25.7%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%

Double Chance

1X (SC Freiburg or draw)
74.3%
X2 (draw or SV Werder Bremen)
50.9%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
93.1%
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Over 3.5
30.2%
Under 3.5
69.8%
Under 4.5
85.9%

Clean Sheet

SC Freiburg clean sheet
33.9%
SV Werder Bremen clean sheet
18.2%

Draw No Bet

SC Freiburg win
65.6%
SV Werder Bremen win
34.4%