← Back to predictions
Bundesliga TIMED
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Home
Sat, 05 Sep 2026 13:30 (UTC+0)
2-1
1. FC Union Berlin Away

Confidence

63.5%
High confidence

Why this prediction

Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 2.22-1.02; Elo differential is 203. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 70%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 44.2pp; entropy 0.83. Selective pick: STRONG.

Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC

Team form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen1. FC Union Berlin
Avg goals for1.711.39
Avg goals against1.341.68
BTTS rate63%65%
Games sampled

Full market breakdown

1X2

Bayer 04 Leverkusen win
63.5%
Draw
19.3%
1. FC Union Berlin win
17.3%

Both Teams to Score

Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%

Double Chance

1X (Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw)
82.7%
X2 (draw or 1. FC Union Berlin)
36.5%

Total Goals

Over 0.5
96.3%
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Over 2.5
63.3%
Under 2.5
36.7%
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Under 4.5
78.2%

Clean Sheet

Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet
36.6%
1. FC Union Berlin clean sheet
9.9%

Draw No Bet

Bayer 04 Leverkusen win
78.6%
1. FC Union Berlin win
21.4%