1. FSV Mainz 05
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Sat, 10 Oct 2026 13:30 (UTC+0)
1-2
Final score: 3-4
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
40.7%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.56-1.71; Elo differential is -29. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 51%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 6.2pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 6 vs 5.
Predicted at 26 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.96 | 2.05 |
| Avg goals against | 1.50 | 1.28 |
| BTTS rate | 61% | 57% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 6 | 5 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
1. FSV Mainz 05 win
34.5%
Draw
24.8%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win
40.7%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Double Chance
1X (1. FSV Mainz 05 or draw)
59.3%
X2 (draw or Bayer 04 Leverkusen)
65.5%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
95.4%
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Under 4.5
76.8%
Clean Sheet
1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
18.1%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet
20.9%
Draw No Bet
1. FSV Mainz 05 win
45.9%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win
54.1%