CD Nacional
Home
Sun, 30 Aug 2026 14:30 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 2-3
CF Estrela da Amadora
Away
✗ Outcome prediction missed
Exact score missed
Confidence
46.4%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.44-1.00; Elo differential is 70. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 17.1pp; entropy 0.96. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 8 vs 11.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| CD Nacional | CF Estrela da Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.14 | 1.32 |
| Avg goals against | 1.12 | 1.76 |
| BTTS rate | 35% | 61% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 8 | 11 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
CD Nacional win
46.4%
Draw
29.3%
CF Estrela da Amadora win
24.2%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Double Chance
1X (CD Nacional or draw)
75.8%
X2 (draw or CF Estrela da Amadora)
53.6%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
92.5%
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Under 4.5
90.9%
Clean Sheet
CD Nacional clean sheet
37.0%
CF Estrela da Amadora clean sheet
23.2%
Draw No Bet
CD Nacional win
65.7%
CF Estrela da Amadora win
34.3%