Casa Pia AC
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Sun, 30 Aug 2026 17:00 (UTC+0)
0-1
Final score: 0-1
Moreirense FC
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
✓ Exact score matched
Confidence
38.3%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: AWAY. Hierarchical model xG 1.11-1.18; Elo differential is 11. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 7.1pp; entropy 0.99. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 18 vs 16.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| Casa Pia AC | Moreirense FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 0.54 | 0.91 |
| Avg goals against | 2.08 | 1.84 |
| BTTS rate | 33% | 46% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 18 | 16 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Casa Pia AC win
30.4%
Draw
31.3%
Moreirense FC win
38.3%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Double Chance
1X (Casa Pia AC or draw)
61.7%
X2 (draw or Moreirense FC)
69.6%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
90.9%
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Over 2.5
39.1%
Under 2.5
60.9%
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Under 4.5
92.6%
Clean Sheet
Casa Pia AC clean sheet
30.4%
Moreirense FC clean sheet
32.5%
Draw No Bet
Casa Pia AC win
44.3%
Moreirense FC win
55.7%