FC Porto
Home
Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:15 (UTC+0)
2-0
Final score: 2-1
Moreirense FC
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
69.8%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 2.24-0.50; Elo differential is 338. Exact-score engine: hierarchical_dixon_coles_mle + residual_score_ml (blend=0.10). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.50; outcome margin 48.1pp; entropy 0.72. Selective pick: ELITE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 2 vs 16.
Predicted at 30 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC
Team form
| FC Porto | Moreirense FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.83 | 0.91 |
| Avg goals against | 0.51 | 1.84 |
| BTTS rate | 33% | 46% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 2 | 16 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
FC Porto win
69.8%
Draw
21.7%
Moreirense FC win
8.4%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34.8%
No
65.2%
Double Chance
1X (FC Porto or draw)
91.6%
X2 (draw or Moreirense FC)
30.2%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
94.3%
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Under 4.5
86.3%
Clean Sheet
FC Porto clean sheet
60.5%
Moreirense FC clean sheet
10.4%
Draw No Bet
FC Porto win
89.2%
Moreirense FC win
10.8%