FC Alverca
Home
Sat, 19 Sep 2026 17:00 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 1-0
Rio Ave FC
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
✓ Exact score matched
Confidence
43.8%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.39-1.06; Elo differential is 75. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 15.2pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 15 vs 13.
Predicted at 05 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC
Team form
| FC Alverca | Rio Ave FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 0.99 | 0.76 |
| Avg goals against | 1.64 | 1.68 |
| BTTS rate | 66% | 30% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 15 | 13 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
FC Alverca win
43.8%
Draw
28.5%
Rio Ave FC win
27.7%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Double Chance
1X (FC Alverca or draw)
72.3%
X2 (draw or Rio Ave FC)
56.2%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
90.3%
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Over 2.5
44.3%
Under 2.5
55.7%
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Under 4.5
89.8%
Clean Sheet
FC Alverca clean sheet
34.7%
Rio Ave FC clean sheet
24.9%
Draw No Bet
FC Alverca win
61.2%
Rio Ave FC win
38.8%