FC Arouca
Home
Sun, 11 Oct 2026 19:30 (UTC+0)
2-1
Final score: 1-0
CF Estrela da Amadora
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
55.5%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 2.09-1.28; Elo differential is 131. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 32.7pp; entropy 0.91. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 5 vs 8.
Predicted at 27 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| FC Arouca | CF Estrela da Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 1.50 | 1.58 |
| Avg goals against | 1.20 | 1.87 |
| BTTS rate | 53% | 68% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 5 | 8 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
FC Arouca win
55.5%
Draw
21.7%
CF Estrela da Amadora win
22.8%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Double Chance
1X (FC Arouca or draw)
77.2%
X2 (draw or CF Estrela da Amadora)
44.5%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
95.8%
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Over 2.5
65.4%
Under 2.5
34.6%
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Under 4.5
75.0%
Clean Sheet
FC Arouca clean sheet
27.7%
CF Estrela da Amadora clean sheet
12.4%
Draw No Bet
FC Arouca win
70.9%
CF Estrela da Amadora win
29.1%