Rio Ave FC
Home
Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:30 (UTC+0)
1-0
Final score: 3-2
CD Nacional
Away
✓ Outcome prediction was correct
Exact score missed
Confidence
41.9%
Why this prediction
Ensemble prediction: HOME. Hierarchical model xG 1.40-1.22; Elo differential is 90. Exact-score engine: legacy_poisson_fallback + residual_score_ml (blend=0.00). Free xG coverage: 0%. xG specialist weight: 0.00; outcome margin 10.8pp; entropy 0.98. Selective pick: PASS/LOW EDGE. Reconstructed pre-match table position: 16 vs 15.
Predicted at 27 Sep 2026, 02:03 UTC
Team form
| Rio Ave FC | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals for | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| Avg goals against | 1.93 | 1.80 |
| BTTS rate | 31% | 39% |
| Games sampled | — | — |
| Position | 16 | 15 |
Full market breakdown
1X2
Rio Ave FC win
41.9%
Draw
27.0%
CD Nacional win
31.1%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Double Chance
1X (Rio Ave FC or draw)
68.9%
X2 (draw or CD Nacional)
58.1%
Total Goals
Over 0.5
91.7%
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Under 4.5
87.5%
Clean Sheet
Rio Ave FC clean sheet
29.7%
CD Nacional clean sheet
24.6%
Draw No Bet
Rio Ave FC win
57.4%
CD Nacional win
42.6%